#7: Estimation

The co-founders at Ultraworking, Kai Zau and Sebastian Marshall, talk about estimation.

Specifically, why is it so hard to know how long things take to complete? So how do we get better at it? How do we simulate and predict the future?

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Listen to our previous episode, Mathematical Arguments for Serializing Projects, here.


Show Notes

1) How to simulate and predict the future.

2) Incompetent teams

-We can spot other people’s flaws but not our own

-Optimism and wishful thinking

3) Schedule enough time after the project to make finishing touches and optimise.

4) Visibility on how things finishes — go through the process of starting, what is it going to look like when it’s finished? What are the transformative steps from here to the finish line?

5) Panic window — being able to sanity check at every step.

6) You can map out all the different things that need to happen from beginning to end.

7) How many hours of meta management a week?

8) Replace planning with prediction, and put some weight on that.

9) Bill Gates quote — Kai's modification "People way overestimate what they can get done in a day and way underestimate what they can get done in a year"

10) Techniques to get better at estimation.

11) Revising estimates or updating project plans.

12) For unknown work = take your initial estimate multiply by 4

13) Scoping to time or scoping to quality.

14) When is the project going to be done? A mental model.



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